The Decline and Fall of the Viral Microtrend

From cottagecore at the height of the pandemic to 2022’s coastal grandmother to 2023’s “Succession”-inspired quiet luxury all the way to the fur-covered “mob wife” at the start of last year, consumers have been inundated with microtrend after microtrend on TikTok.

But lately, the churn seems to have slowed.

“I can only think of a handful that started in 2024,” said Mia Jacobs, fashion forecaster at trend forecasting company WGSN. “We were on a hamster wheel and we couldn’t get off it, and that has changed.”

There are a number of factors fueling that shift. When the pandemic disrupted the trend cycle, consumers, with extra savings in their wallets and a desire to experiment, flocked to trying on, labelling and sharing aesthetics. The fashion press covered each surge and brands and retailers, eager to boost sales, merchandised accordingly. It was a novelty, as TikTok allowed trends to rise faster than ever before.

But cut to today, and reality has crept in. You’re more likely to see a video on TikTok lamenting overconsumption than one gassing up the next of-the-moment aesthetic; in the US, credit card debt has reached record highs. Plus, there’s the fact that all signs point to the end of TikTok in the US in less than two weeks’ time.

It remains to be seen if this represents a sea change for how Gen-Z shoppers think and talk about fashion online. After all, while the pace of the microtrend cycle may be slowing, the phenomenon hasn’t disappeared entirely: already this year, there’s been growing chatter around the “fisherman” aesthetic.

No matter microtrends’ fate, what will remain is the lessons retailers gleaned from the peak of the microtrends moment, including the importance of being able to plug into fast-moving cultural conversations.

“Microtrends were a way to convey a vibe or a feeling and organize community, and it was something Gen-Z was craving at the time,” said Jacobs. “But they’ve woken up to the reality of ‘here today and gone tomorrow,’ and there’s a lot of fatigue.”

What’s Happening?

For evidence the frenetic naming and consumption of viral trends has tempered, look at what’s dominated online fashion discourse lately.

From “grandpacore” to “chaotic customisation,” which entails adding adornments like patches and jewels to accessories, people have been focused on themes aimed at conveying a sense of personal style — even if it ultimately manifests in buying a pre-made bag charm. Elsewhere, ideas like “underconsumptioncore” and de-influencing have filtered into discussion. There’s been a boom in sales of basics over the past year, said Jacobs, as calling out a “core” or announcing adherence to a trend seems to be falling out of favor.

“I don’t see people declaring ‘cores’ as much anymore,” said Mandy Lee, a fashion writer and influencer. “It’s not cool.”

It’s also likely because people are increasingly aware that these microtrends don’t usually last. Microtrends have become “meme-like abstractions,” said Michael Appler, communications director at analytics firm Trendalytics. Conversation about trends online has been led mostly by “trendcasters,” or people looking to go viral rather than do the actual cultural analysis work traditional forecasters do, fashion futurist Geraldine Wharry shared in a report, “Hypercycle” for creative agency Gung Ho.

“More influencers or other people were trying to get a hold of that cultural real estate, and the conversation around trends,” said Wharry. “We’ve co-opted what trends mean.”

At their peak, microtrends tended to thrive for a month or two — longer, perhaps, if they were tied to a pop-cultural moment (think “Barbiecore,” tied to the 2023 film or more recently, “Brat Summer,” inspired by Charli XCX’s hit album). Now, there are fewer viral trends, but themes tend to stay in the zeitgeist for a while.

“[Last year], I would’ve said Gen-Z moves at the speed of light,” said Craig Brommers, chief marketing officer of American Eagle. “Now there are things that are sticking around longer.”

Brommers said the retailer is still seeing high demand for trends that they presumed would be fleeting, like leopard print and barrel jeans, both of which popped up a year ago. Shoppers keep buying Westernwear-inspired garments like cowboy boots and bootcut jeans or coastal grandmother-inspired items like linen pants and striped sweaters years after they first hit the discourse.

Today, retailers’ main challenge isn’t the race to keep up, but rather figure out what’s worth investing in, and to what extent. What sticks tends to follow a pattern: themes that show up in multiple places (online, on the big screen and on the runway), can be sold across seasons (unlike Mobwives’ fur coat-centric aesthetic, which fell out of favour come spring) or are easy to buy into (like clean girl’s slicked back buns, which only require some styling gel) tend to have more staying power. Brands should also look for items that can feed demand for multiple trends — balletcore and coquettecore, for instance, bubbled up at different times, but encapsulated a similar look.

“Trends that aren’t as fleeting or micro are more about establishing an identity,” said Megan Herren, strategy director at social media firm Movers+Shakers.

What’s Trending Now

Viral microtrends have mostly become a useful tool to help brands and retailers market to younger shoppers. But with the apparent slowdown underway and TikTok’s fate in question, Herren has been encouraging brands to test more on Instagram and focus on longer-term strategies, rather than going viral.

“We’re pushing for more evergreen storytelling,” said Herren. “These trends are still on YouTube and Instagram, but they start on TikTok … we’ve been helping our clients rethink what virality looks like in the future.”

Still, the flurry of microtrends showed brands and retailers that consumers expect them to take risks, use humor and be plugged into the cultural conversation, said Herren.

Using the trending lexicon has become more important in creating desirability, said Divya Mathur, Revolve’s chief merchandising officer and fashion director. Many microtrends relate to pop-cultural events and activities: shoppers are increasingly demanding to dress around what they’re doing, rather than just build their wardrobes seasonally — whether going to the US Open, a concert or movie, said Mathur.

“Because the customer feeds into what’s happening on TikTok, if you’re talking about something using the terminology that doesn’t feel relevant, it doesn’t matter if you’re pushing the same product, it doesn’t feel relevant,” said Mathur. “Customers get excited about cultural moments, and then it’s ‘what am I wearing to it?’”

Source: BOF